Some light reading for Wednesday evening:
Whats Wrong with Adrian Gonzalez? – ESPN Boston’s Jeremy Lundblad
Royally Loaded: Who to pick up to take the place of Broxton should he be dealt — Andy Behrens, Yahoo!
Buyers or Sellers: ESPN.com
Top 25 Prospects: UPDATE–Keith Law, ESPN (insider required)
High Fives: Starting Pitchers–Yahoo! Staff
Let us know your thoughts.
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There’s a new closer in Cincinnati, as Aroldis Chapman has taken the reins from Sean Marshall. It’s no secret that Chapman has an amazing ability to get batters out. His numbers thus far in 2012 are just flat out silly: 22 1/3 IP 0.00 ERA 0.63 WHIP 39K / 7 BB Now that he has been named the closer, his “value” in the minds of other owners most certainly has risen a great amount. In terms of having the ability to post great ratios and strikeouts while also accumulating saves, he has vaulted into the tier of Kimbrel and Papelbon…on paper. What you say? On paper? Well how many times have we seen talented 7th and 8th inning pitchers struggle upon being placed in the closer role? To be fair, there have also been success stories. Let’s look at Sean Marshall for an example:
2010 (with Cubs): 74 2/3 IP: 2.65 ERA 1.11 WHIP 90K / 25 BB
2011 (with Cubs): 75 2/3 IP: 2.26 ERA 1.10 WHIP 79K / 17 BB
Very respectable numbers, with a handful of wins and saves also contributed by Marshall each of those two years. On paper, he looked like a great candidate to replace Ryan Madson as the Reds closer this season. But for some reason, things didn’t go as planned. The one thing fantasy owners need to remember is saves are one category. If you have Chapman on your roster right now, you most likely didn’t draft him from the get-go with the expectation of his new role, and you probably have at least a couple of other closers on your roster already. I would doubt the Reds will roll Chapman out for multiple inning outings anymore, thus decreasing the number of innings he will rack up strikeouts. So will the saves be plentiful? Maybe. Will the strikeouts still pile up? Probably. Will he eventually give up an earned run? Absolutely. With no track record of being a team’s true closer, shouldn’t Chapman be considered a Sell High candidate? Who knows what another owner may give up to get Chapman. In my opinion, it’s worth finding out.
Lance Berkman appears to have a serious knee injury that may ultimately end his career. As of this writing, the rumor is a torn ACL, putting him out for the rest of 2012 and most likely not even a player worth stashing away in a keeper league at his age. The man to replace the Puma in the Cards lineup will initially be Matt Adams. Adams will play the majority of time at 1B, splitting time with Matt Carpenter. Adams will not be considered a speed demon by any means, but the guy has some real power and his short stroke should provide a solid batting average as well. His last two levels of minor league ball have been very impressive:
2011 AA 32 HR 101 RBI .300 BA
2012 AAA 9 HR 27 RBI .340 BA (prior to call up)
For Berkman owners, Adams is an instant pick up, at the very worst to see if his skills will transfer to the major leagues.
Quick Hits
Who’s been hot in the last two weeks?
Andrew McCutchen: 11 R 7 HR 13 RBI 2 SB .413
Mike Trout: 11 R 3 HR 9 RBI 5 SB .435
Josh Reddick: 12 R 6 HR 13 RBI 1 SB .286
Of the three, Reddick appears to be the only true sell high candidate. He has been a very streaky player in the minor leagues, and never shown this much power. His home ball park isn’t the most hitter friendly, so it’s only fair to expect a bit of a regression in the HR and RBI categories. Mike Trout has displayed superior speed in the past, it will be interesting to see how often he is given the green light in the future.
We’ve noted it before, but here is your reminder.
Raul Ibanez vs. RHP: 97 AB 9 HR 27 RBI .278 AVE. Stream him if you have the roster flexibility.
Chris Capuano in the last month is 4-0 with 30 K in 34 IP. At home in 2012, he is also 4-0 with 24 K in 26 IP, sporting a 1.38 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.
James McDonald‘s strikeouts in his last 5 starts: 11-8-7-10-8: 44 in total in 34 2/3 IP.
Jeff Samardzija‘s last 5 starts:
7 1/3 IP 3 ER 8 K vs. CHW
5 IP 1 ER 6 K @ MIL
7 IP 1 ER 7 K vs. ATL
7 2/3IP 1 ER 7 K @ CIN
6 2/3 IP 0 ER 9 K vs. STL
Not like he’s been facing the Twins, Astros, and Mariners. Those are some pretty solid offensive clubs he’s pitched against.
And that’s a wrap for this week’s Monday Roundup. Thanks for reading. And follow us on Twitter: @fbinsight
In another negative event for fantasy owners (and baseball fans) MLB saw another star land on the DL. The Dodgers see Matt Kemp go down yesterday with a hamstring injury that should only keep him sidelined for 15 days, however, consider Kemp’s personal goal of going 50/50 an even longer shot than it already was. Kemp’s hamstring shouldn’t affect his power numbers moving forward, however, look to see Kemp’s SB numbers dwindle as Mattingly and the Dodgers will most likely try to protect their star slugger from future leg injuries. The Dodgers have little to gain by giving Kemp the green light on the base paths moving forward. They already have a sizable lead in the NL West and they don’t want to see a leg injury affect their expensive like the Cubs saw happen to Alfonso Soriano when he had his hamstring injury a few years back.
Is it time to trade Eric Hosmer? Short answer, no. Why? Although he is operating at a .174/.243.326 clip, Hosmer has a .165 BABIP which is nearly .150 less than the league average, he also has 12 BB and 18 K’s in 132 AB’s in 2012. His eye at the plate is solid and he’s quite simply gotten unlucky thus far this year. That said, even if he does return to an average BABIP for the rest of the season, 2012 may not be the breakout season many of us expected. Bottom line is that selling Hosmer now would be selling at the lowest point possible. If you can take advantage of an owner who is fed up with the performance of the young star, make some offers to try and acquire him.
Sticking with the first basemen, Joey Votto broke out in a big way on Sunday by hitting 3 HR’s and carding 6 RBI in their 9-6 victory over Washington. Votto’s seasons have begun slowly the last two seasons after winning the MVP award in 2010. The door to buy low on Votto has most likely closed, however, if you can still get him do it. Just expect to pay more for him than you maybe would’ve had to a week ago. Consider Votto another version of Mark Teixeira–slow starters who heat up with the weather. As long as we’re on the topic, news broke that Tex has been battling a bronchial infection recently which has forced him to take antibiotics. He did hit a HR in Monday’s win, but antibiotics have the propensity to cause fatigue in some people. I do see Tex as a top-tier buy low candidate, but its possible he has a few slow games while he battles the infection. Don’t be surprised if he even takes one of the next couple games off.
Quick Hits:
Brandon Inge hit four homers in 5 days for Oakland last week. He’s been out with a groin injury so beware of buying the hype. Carlos Beltran is out today with knee issues. Beltran is off to an amazing start in 2012, but if you have a chance to sell high, do it. He won’t keep up this pace and its likely he will miss significant time do to an injury..most likely a knee injury. JJ Hardy has been hot lately. One of the streakiest hitters, Hardy is a good guy to stash on your bench and have him available for one of his breakout weeks. Just remember to get him back on your bench when he hits his slumps (see: Alfonso Soriano). Desmond Jennings will be out until at least May 27 with a knee injury. This is a bit of a concern considering much of his fantasy value at this point is his ability to take the extra base as well as garner SB’s for his owners. Monitor this situation closely.
Let us know your thoughts! Follow us on Twitter @FBinsight
Is it time to trade for Mark Teixeira? Some fantasy baseball owners know about the notorious slow starts that Teixeira seemingly endures. Others are oblivioius. What is the cause for the April misery? That’s an answer I don’t have. But what’s more important is that he has consistently heated up and finished the season with impressive counting stats, and often times for different owners than the ones that have drafted him. In typical fashion, after about a month, an owner has said “enough” and sold Teixeira for well below his draft value and moved on. Only to look back and regret it. Let’s take a look at Teixeira’s starts since joining the Yankees prior to the 2009 season.
2009
April: 19 games 11 R 3 HR 10 RBI .200 BA/ .367 OBP/ .371 SLG
May: 28 games 25 R 13 HR 34 RBI .330 BA/ .391 OBP/ .748 SLG
2009 Year End Stats: 156 Games 103 R 39 HR 122 RBI .292 BA
2010
April: 22 games 15 R 2 HR 9 RBI .136 / .300 / .259
May: 29 games 22 R 6 HR 25 RBI .280 / .366 / .475
2010 Year End Stats: 158 Games 113 R 33 HR 108 RBI .256 BA
2011
April: 22 games 15 R 5 HR 13 RBI .253 / .388 / .519
May: 29 games 17 R 10 HR 22 RBI .259 / .351 / .534
2011 Year End Stats: 156 Games 90 R 39 HR 111 RBI .248 BA
*Teixeira did play one game in March of 2011 - 1 hit in 3 AB, 1 R 1 HR 3 RBI
2012
April: 21 games 10 R 3 HR 12 RBI .244/ .290/ .395
May: 6 games 2 R 1 HR 4 RBI .136/ .200/ .318
Some common themes from Teixeira’s starts as a Yankee: May seemed to be the month when Teixeira started to pick things up offensively. It would appear on the surface that the batting average has considerably diminished, which it has. But when looking at his batting average on balls in play, he may have been a bit “unlucky”. Hovering around 30% hit rate for his career, Mark’s 2010 (27%) and 2011 (24%) were uncharacteristically low. His flyball percentages ( 2010 – 45%, 2011 – 47%) were above career norms, which could explain the BA decrease to an extent. On the positive side, his walk rate and contact rate remained within career averages.
Despite the small sample size for May of 2012, perhaps this is yet another case of a typical slow start for Mark Teixeira, and an opportunity to buy low before the offensive onslaught. Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson are doing their part getting on base, and the arrival of Brett Gardner back in the lineup in the near future will provide even more opportunities to drive in runs. Perhaps this is your year to buy low and reap the benefits.
Quick Hits
We wrote about R.A. Dickey in a previous Roundup. Yet he still remains a free agent in the majority of 10 and 12 team leagues. Despite one horrendous start in April at Atlanta ( 8ER in 4 1/2 IP), his other 5 starts have been more than serviceable (4W and a ND). It’s not like I’m projecting him to win the Cy Young this season, but he’s better than many guys sitting on fantasy rosters right now.
Pedro Alvarez in his last 40 at bats: 10 R 5 HR 11 RBI .375 BA. What’s more impressive to me is in his last six games – 5 BB: 3 K. Small sample size for a guy who’s been a strikeout machine in the past. He’s certainly not over the hump yet, but if you can pick him up still, he’s worth a flier should this be the time he figures it out.
Two top drafted outfielders have heated up recently: Matt Holliday and Alex Gordon are both in the midst of a hot streak. In the past two weeks:
Holliday: 11 R 2 HR 11 RBI 2 SB .333 BA
Gordon: 13 R 3 HR 10 RBI 1 SB . 354
And that’s a wrap. Check out the site and let us know what you think. And follow us on Twitter: @fbinsight
It’s the last day of April. The Fantasy Baseball season is almost one month in the books. Still a lot of time to move up or down the standings. Here’s the latest…
In case you haven’t noticed, there is a star emerging in Tampa. Desmond Jennings, always considered a top prospect, made his debut last July and posted very respectable numbers during his two and a half month stint in the majors. Coming into this season, Jennings was projected anywhere in the #12-20 range among outfielders in mixed leagues. But given his start to 2012, now may be your last chance to grab him before he makes the leap into the top handful. In the past two weeks, Jennings has accumulated 11R, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 5 SB and hit .308. He has the skills, a lot like Jacoby Ellsbury last season, to hit for double digit power while also stealing 30-40+ bases. Only three or four outfielders have that rare ability. And at the age of 25, there may be more growth to come. In fact, I’d trade Michael Bourn, Giancarlo Stanton, Hunter Pence, Nelson Cruz, and maybe even Andrew McCutchen (gasp!) all straight up for the chance to get Desmond Jennings. All guys who were drafted ahead of him and carry quite a bit of name value. He’s that good. Durability has been an issue in the past, so beware of that, but this star in the making is an absolute BUY in our book.
Jose Altuve. Sell High or Enjoy the Ride? Great Question we received on Twitter this past weekend. He’s stands 5’7″ and is young (will turn 22 this weekend). He’s absolutely been on fire at the plate. His past two weeks have yielded 10R, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 3 SB and a .400 BA. His minor league numbers have shown a lack of walks but a high contract rate with very few strikeouts. He’s riding a very high BABIP right now, much higher than 2011, so expect a regression in batting average. Altuve does have the ability to steal double digit bases, but has a very low SB success rate. That may fly with managers in the minor leagues as they are grooming the skills of youngsters, but in the bigs, that just won’t last. Unless the success rate improves, temper your SB expectations. We project a batting average in the .305-.315 range the rest of the season, with 10 SB. The Astros are not a high powered offense so don’t expect a lot of Runs or RBI, with 3-5 HR as well from Altuve. All that being said, he’s still a week from 22 years of age and a great play in deeper keeper leagues. But if you can find an owner who wants to buy the hot start, see if you can benefit.
Jason Kubel is swinging a hot bat. On April 18th, Kubel was sitting on 0R, 0HR, 3 RBI and hitting .207. Perhaps it took him a couple of weeks to get acclimated to the new surroundings in Arizona. Because since then he’s been clicking on all cylinders. Since that day: 10 games – 7R, 3HR, 9RBI and the batting average has rising to .333. The Diamondbacks, even without Chris B. Young have nice depth in the lineup. Justin Upton has yet to fully breakout this season, but Miguel Montero, Gerardo Parra, and Aaron Hill have filled the void. Once Upton and Young are back in the lineup everyday, Kubel may lose a few at bats in the lineup, but when he does play, has the potential to continue to put up great counting numbers.
Need speed? Tony Campana doesn’t do a whole lot to help fantasy teams, but he sure can run. He won’t play everyday, in fact primarily a play vs. RH pitchers. But if you have the ability to set daily lineups and need SB, look no further for cheap speed. in 20 AB vs. RHP this season, he has 6 SB vs. 0 CS. He also has 0 HR and 0 RBI in that stretch so don’t expect much else.
Matt Joyce vs. RHP: 4 HR, .364 BA
Matt Joyce vs. LHP: 1 HR, .211 BA
In 3 road starts this year, Vance Worley is 2-0. He’s pitched 19 innings, given up 3 earned runs, and struck out 22 batters, while walking 5. Granted two of those teams were San Diego and Pittsburgh. But keep an eye on him. May not even be rostered in some leagues.
Javy Guerra has struggled in his past three outings. Kenley Jansen has struck out 24 batters in 14+ IP this year. Just saying.
And that’s a wrap. Have a great Monday.
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It’s Monday Morning, fresh off an exciting weekend of baseball. Here’s your weekly roundup…
Jason Hammel currently sports a 2.37 era and 1.11 whip (18K in 19 IP) with 2 wins in his three starts to open the 2012 season. Looks good on the surface, but he’s bucking a below average hit % and low HR/FB rate. He striking out batters more frequently than ever so there’s a chance the change in scenery from the NL West and Coors Field could be a short term benefit before hitters, especially those the AL East, catch on. In deeper leagues, he may be a nice streaming play for a while, but in shallower leagues, it’s probably only a matter of time before Hammel trends back to career norms.
Freddie Freeman is locked in. Over the past 7 days he is hitting .478 with 7 R, 3 HR, and 14 RBI. Guess which team has scored the most runs in baseball? Yes, the Rangers, but do you know who is second? The Atlanta Braves. Doubt many would have come up with that answer, but it’s true. They’ve scored 91 runs in their first 16 games. Michael Bourn has a lot to do with that as well. Both Bourn and Freeman started slowly, but have heated up in a hurry. Bourn is hitting .474 in the past week, and has scored 7 runs and stolen 5 bases in that span. Fantasy owners were frustrated with the lack of SB from Bourn early, but he has clearly redeemed himself.
Albert Pujols still has not homered. If you currently roster him, you’re more than annoyed. Fantasy gurus were all over a monster year for Albert in LA, but it hasn’t materialized. Perhaps getting used to a new home ballpark or new pitchers in the American League are to blame. But a few signs are slightly alarming. It’s a very small sample size, but Pujols has always been a player that has walked more than he has struck out, but this season is the opposite. Nine strikeouts to go with 5 walks. Again, it’s early. One of last season’s criticisms of Pujols was the spike in groundballs hit. This season, he is back to more historical groundball/flyball rates and obviously the hr/flyball is 0%. From watching many of his at bats on television, a little luck should be coming his way soon. Pujols has hit several balls hard into the gap and to the wall only to be gobbled up by leather. Give it some time, once he gets hot, it could get scary.
Quick Hits
Jose Reyes is off to a bland start. I don’t see double digit HR coming this season, so if he doesn’t steal 50 bases, how special is he really? Could he be traded in your league based off his name value alone? There are several SS eligible options that could provide very similar overall value: Andrus, Jeter (maybe too hot a start to trade for right now), Rollins, and Bonifacio. And many more that can absolutely contribute in mixed leagues and may be readily available: Y. Escobar, Hardy, Furcal Desmond.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have scored 30 runs in 15 games this season. Here’s potential SP for the next series: Colorado @ Pittsburgh
Monday: Jamie Moyer
Tuesday: Juan Nicasio
Wednesday: Jhoulys Chacin
All three may be available in many leagues. Something to think about.
Need some speed? Here are some names in the top 10 of MLB that you may not have expected or may be available in your league:
Jordan Schafer (6) Jason Heyward (5) Adam Jones (4) Alcides Escobar (4) Yoenis Cespedes (4) Gerardo Parra (4).
Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Nolan Reimold all have 5 home runs. Once Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy start to hit for some power…
Guess whose line this is to start the season? 14 R, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 2 SB, .293 AVE
It’s Chase Headley. Breakout season?
Mark Ellis and Alejandro De Aza have both scored 14 runs this season, tied for 4th in MLB.
Colby Lewis has 24 K in 26 2/3 IP. Texas can obviously score some runs. Lewis has legit 20 win potential this season.
And that’s a wrap. Thanks for stopping by. Check out the rest of the site and let us know what you think.
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This is about the time of the season when, for whatever reason, the panic light begins to flash for some of us. This phenomenon is by no means rational or logical (considering only 10 of 162 games have been played. That’s 6% of games folks), but it happened nonetheless. Therefore, we’re gonna profile a few players who have had some early season success and who are being snatched up in daily and weekly league formats.
JD Martinez OF Houston Astros
The 24yr old OF for the Houston Astros has begun the season well enough to earn a roster spot on any fantasy team whether it be NL only or mixed leagues. Thus far in 2012 Martinez has gone: 13/41 .317BA/.417/.610, 5R 3HR 10RBI 0SB. Currently owned in only 62% of all Yahoo! leagues, Martinez looks to have the pedigree to stick around as a consistent performer in 2012.
2011 AAA: 88G, 317AB, 50R, 13HR, 72RBI, .388/.414/.546 .959OPS
2011 MLB: 53G, 208AB, 29R, 6HR, 35RBI, .274/.319/.423 .325BABIP
Although the Astros don’t have the talent to compete in the NL central in 2012, consider Martinez as one of the few bright spots as they build for the future.
Omar Infante: (2B Miami Marlins)
The 30-year-old Miami Marlin 2B (owned in 67% of Yahoo! leagues) is off to the best start of his career so far posting:
2012: 13/39 9R, 4HR, 6RBI, 0SB .333/.350/.795 .275BABIP
All signs would suggest, however, that Infante is a solid sell high candidate:
162G career avg: 66R, 10HR, 55RBI, 8SB .276/.319/.398 .310BABIP
Although Infante has a BABIP 35 points lower than his career average, he is slugging nearly 400 points higher than his career average. The takeaway is that Infante may have a decent BA for the remainder of the season–especially in a solid Miami Marlin lineup–but look for his current power to plateau and then eventually fall off the proverbial cliff.
Get what you can for Infante while the sell high window is still open.
Chris Young: OF Arizona Diamondbacks
Perhaps the best player not named Matt Kemp off to the hottest start is Arizona Diamondback OF Chris Young:
16/39 .410/.500/.897 8R 5HR 13RBI 2SB
Not unlike Infante, however, Young will not keep up his torrid pace moving forward.
162G Avg: 89R, 25HR, 70RBI, 22SB .241/.321/.442
A perennial 20/20 threat, Young has always had the tools to be considered one of the best young outfielders in the game. However, at age 28, the odds of him breaking out and developing into a .300 hitter are quite slim. First, Young has a .379 BABIP compared to a MLB average of approx .300 and a career average of .281. Second, Young’s highest BA ever in his career was .257 in 2010. In 2009 Young hit .212 and in 2011 he hit .236. Bottom line, not only will Young not continue to hit at this rate, I would bet a significant amount of money that he doesn’t finish the season batting above .270. This means Young is in for a drastic downfall and should be the highest of all sell high candidates in fantasy baseball.
Let us know your thoughts!
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A little over a week in to the season, you sure realize how much you miss America’s Pastime over the winter months once it’s finally here and fantasy baseball is in full force. A lot has happened in the past week, so here’s the Monday Roundup.
Jacoby Ellsbury is out for the next 6-8 weeks. That’s a big blow to those owners who expected similar numbers as 2011. Cody Ross will figure to get a large number of at bats in Ellsbury’s absense. Ross started the season slow, but homered both Saturday and Sunday and collected 2 HR and 7 RBI in the two weekend games. The Red Sox have started to score in bunches so insert Ross and ride the streak while you can. A name to keep an eye on is Will Middlebrooks.The 23 year old OF is off to a scorching start in AAA (8 R, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 2 SB, .341). Should Jason Repko struggle, Middlebrooks could be a player to stash in deeper leagues.
The Yankees offense has also begun to wake up, as Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira hit the ball hard this past weekend and started to score some runs. Derek Jeter started slow in 2011, but has already hit 2 home runs in 2012 and seems to have snuck under the radar early this season. He easily could be a top 5 SS the entire year at the top of that potent lineup after being cast off as too old. Raul Ibanez will be platooned as DH vs. RHP for the majority of games it appears. But who cares? In daily leagues, insert him when he plays and you’ll collect some valuable power. Ibanez only has 20 AB this season, but has made them count (2 HR, 9 RBI, and even 2 SB!).
Quick Hits
Jordan Schafer in the past 7 days : 7 runs, 5 SB. Edwin Ecarnacion is off to a fast start (7 R, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, .289). The Jays lineup will score and score some more. Is this the year Matt Garza wins the NL Cy Young? It’s early, but he’s pitching well thus far. Could he be traded to a contender mid-season, improving potential win total?
R.A. Dickey since coming to the New York Mets:
2010: 2.84 ERA 1.19 WHIP
2011: 3.28 ERA 1.23 WHIP
2012: 2.08 ERA 1.46 WHIP
Unfortunately, the strikeouts haven’t piled up in the past two season, and the wins are just average (but flukey as always) but you can do a lot worse with the ratios for a 3rd/4th starters in 12 team mixed leagues.
Trade Index
Sell High:
1. Omar Infante: Has hit 4 home runs already this season with a .343 average. With 2B being fairly deep this season, and Infante only being 2B elig. in most leagues, perhaps you can pawn him off early and buy low on guys like Brandon Phillips, Dan Uggla, or Rickie Weeks.
2. Josh Willingham: He’s a .263 career hitter, playing home games in a cavernous park, and in a lineup that can’t stay healthy. Yet off to a 3 HR and .455 BA start. That won’t last. While I believe that Willingham can hit mid-twenties home runs this season, I don’t see him scoring many runs hitting 5th in the Twins lineup, nor do I see his average resting too much higher than his career mark.
3. Chad Billingsly: Has never posted a WHIP under 1.28. Ever. Last three years ERA: 4.03, 3.57, 4.21. He’s serviceable, and I’ve had him on teams in the past hoping for a breakout. But it’s never fully arrived. This may be the season, as he’s pitched brilliantly in his first two starts. But I’m seeing what other teams will pay first.
Buy Low:
1. Tim Lincecum: His velo is down! Alert the press! There are signs of diminished velocity across the league. He hasn’t been getting the swinging strikes as frequently this season as in years past. But until I hear that there is an injury named as the cause, I’m looking to buy low. In 2009, Lincecum’s first two starts were horrendous (8.1 IP combined, 7.56 ERA, 2.40 WHIP). Guess what? He won the Cy Young award that season.
2. Ryan Zimmerman: The injury history is there, but the guy has proven he can hit when healthy, and the Nats lineup is really improved over season’s past. Off to a slow start, I still see a .290 average and 25 HR by season’s end.
3. Mark Reynolds: The average will be a killer. But, the guy has tremendous power and Adam Jones and Nick Markakis seem to be squaring the ball up early. RBI opportunities should be aplenty. He’s probably riding the pine on several teams benches right now given the slow start, but if history is any indication, he hits for power in bunches. See what it’ll take to buy before the boom.
That’s a wrap on this week’s Monday Roundup. As always, we appreicate your feedback.
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This is the first installment of our Monday Roundup. It’s purpose is to provide “under the radar” insight to help you navigate your way throughout the Fantasy Baseball season. While the Matt Kemp’s and Miguel Cabrera’s of the world put up great overall numbers and garner most of the highlights, more often than not it is the nondescript moves you make throughout the year that can provide that extra boost in the final standings. So here goes…
Carlos Pena has already slugged two HR this season, but what’s been more surprising is where he has been placed in the batting order. Both Saturday and Sunday’s games saw Pena hit second in the lineup, right in front of Evan Longoria. Pena has shown good OBP in years past, and despite not the fleetest of foot, this could provide a boost in runs scored albeit perhaps a decrease in potential RBI. Most likely not one of the starting first baseman in many leagues, he could provide good counting stats in the utility slot.
We’ve all seen Yoenis Cespedes hit 3 monster home runs on TV. They’ve been rocket shots that have left the park in a hurry. There’s very little dispute as to the power potential in that bat, even with the home ballpark being pitcher friendly. But the problem isn’t so much with Cespedes himself, but with who else is in the lineup. We mentioned the 3 HR, but he has only one other hit on the season, and should he get on base, with the likes of Seth Smith, Kurt Suzuki, Cliff Pennington, and Josh Donaldson hitting behind him, I’m not so sure he’ll touch home plate many times beyond hitting home runs. Could pitchers eventually start to pitch him a little more cautiously knowing the rest of the order isn’t as threatening? Time will tell, but this smells a little like early season sell high to me.
If you could get on base at a good rate in front of Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, and Jay Bruce, you would expect to score a bunch of runs correct? Well that’s exactly where Zack Cozart is slated in the lineup. Hitting second behind Brandon Phillips and in front of the three previously mentioned power hitters, Cozart just needs to make contact and get on base to be a valuable asset to a fantasy team. His AAA and AA numbers suggest the ability to do just that. Scorching the ball early this season, perhaps only the running game is what will separate Cozart from joining the top half of SS in a 12 team league. Double digit SB are not out of the equation either. If he’s still available in your league, don’t hesitate.
Is David Freese a legitimate MVP candidate if he can stay healthy all season? Sure seems like he is riding his 2011 post-season heroics into early 2012 without a hitch. The Cardinals as a team are hitting the cover off the ball. Carlos Beltran (7-18, 2 HR, 1 SB) and Rafael Furcal (10-19,2 SB) have both been early season sparks, and we know Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman’s abilities. Freese did have a 26 HR season in AAA and has a career .302 BA as a professional, so this isn’t unprecedented.
Final Thoughts:
Starlin Castro has already stolen 4 bases in 3 games. After 22 SB / 9 CS in 2011, we were unsure as to how high the SB ceiling was with this youngster. If he can steal 30 in ’12…? Fernando Rodney seems to be the go-to guy for the Rays at the moment, but as we’ve seen with Rodney in the past, he’s a train-wreck waiting to happen. Buyer Beware. Alfredo Aceves was a hot pickup late last week. And he just can’t get anyone out thus far. No clue where the Red Sox go from here. It’s not like Mark Melancon has been any better. But if Daniel Bard is available in your league, it may be worth a speculative play, despite the Sox claiming they won’t move him out of the rotation. I get the feelling that no matter how nasty Kenley Jansen is to start the year, it is absolutely Javy Guerra’s job to lose. So for all you owners who drafted Guerra after Jansen…kudos for now.
That’s a wrap for our first Monday Roundup. We hope you’ll check it out every Monday morning throughout the season. And as always, we appreciate your comments!
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Most likely, all of us have completed our fantasy baseball drafts and are inevitably looking at our team feverishly to try and do whatever we can to make our teams better before the bulk of the season begins. That said, one of the best and easiest ways to improve your fantasy baseball team early in the season–or late in the season for that matter–is to work the waiver wire/FAAB process to roster RP who stand the best chance to provide your team with some saves and/or some solid ratios and strikeouts.
Lets take a look at a few pitchers you should consider rostering to try and help your fantasy baseball team.
As we have discussed before, Kenley Jansen is easily the most popular RP in fantasy baseball who isn’t currently closing games in the majors. In 2011 Jansen had 96k’s in only 52.2 IP. He had a ridiculous 16.1k/9 and showed the elite stuff every fantasy owner seeks in a closer.
Javy Guerra is currently the closer for the Dodgers. Guerra logged a 7.3k/9 as well as accumulating 21 saves after taking over for the forever ruined Jonathan Broxton(thanks Joe Torre).
Although Ned Yost has yet to officially name a full-time replacement for injured closer, Jokaim Soria, the current odds on favorite according to most experts is Jonathan Broxton, the former Dodger closer. Unfortunately for Broxton, Joe Torre ended his career in 2010 but nobody has told him as of yet. The proof, however, is in the proverbial pudding. Broxton left the 2011 campaign early due to nagging injured as well as his inability to get opposing batters out.
Although Holland doesn’t have the experience as a closer Broxton does, we maintain that Holland is a better pickup for your team than Broxton. Broxton’s injuries and ever decreasing k/9 rate lead us to believe its only a matter of time until Holland secures the 9th inning duties for the Royals. Holland posted an 11.1k/9 and 74k in 60ip in 2011.
The White Sox are a mess. They lost their #1 starter, Mark Buehrle, to free agency this past offseason. Their key free agent signing of the 2010 offseason, Adam Dunn, had one of the worst seasons in baseball history for a guy coming off a stretch of 40HR seasons. And Alex Rios disappointed in 2011 after a promising first full season in Chicago in 2010.
Nonetheless, Kenny Williams traded their closer–and his famous club friendly contract–Sergio Santos to Toronto this past offseason. Matt Thornton was dubbed the likely finisher for the south-siders after logging 9.5k/9 and 63k in 60IP in 2011. Thornton has also had some experience closing in his career prior to the 2012 season.
Addison Reed, the 3rd round selection of the White Sox in the 2010 amateur draft, is quickly becoming a likely favorite to take the closer job and run with it for the Sox this season and many seasons to come. In his first few appearances with Chicago in 2011, Reed logged 14k in 7.3IP as well as a 14.73k/9. Most experts predict the Sox to struggle in 2012 thus making it more likely for them to turn to Reed earlier in the season to give him much-needed experience for the future.
Other Next in Line Candidates:
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